The Grand National is one of the most highly anticipated events in the horse race betting calendar, drawing interest from seasoned punters and casual fans alike. As always, spotting key trends can be crucial in identifying potential winners in the Grand National. By analysing recent statistics, we can gain valuable insights into what makes a typical Aintree winner.
Age stats
One of the most significant trends is age. Nine of the last 11 winners were aged between seven and nine, making this the prime age bracket for success.
Horses younger than seven often lack the required stamina and experience, while older runners may struggle with the race’s demands.
Market position & odds
While favourites have had mixed success, three of the last 11 winners were either favourites or joint-favourites. Additionally, four of the last 11 winners were among the top three in the betting market.
However, value seekers will note that seven of the last 11 winners were priced at 11/1 or bigger, demonstrating that longer-odds contenders often perform well.
Last run performance
A solid recent performance is often a good indicator of Grand National success. Five of the last 11 winners had won their previous race, while two more had placed.
Additionally, nine of the last 11 winners had run within the last 49 days, highlighting the importance of race fitness coming into the event.
Interestingly, six of the last 11 winners had their final prep run at the Cheltenham Festival, with some notable performances in the Cross Country Chase, Pertemps Final, Gold Cup, and Trophy Handicap Chase.
Weight trends
Weight is a crucial factor in the Grand National, with the challenging 4m 2½f trip testing even the strongest stayers.
Nine of the last 11 winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 5lbs, suggesting that those within this range have a better chance of success.
Course and distance form
Previous experience at Aintree appears to be a valuable asset. Seven of the last 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree, while three had already secured a win at the course.
Stamina is another vital component, and eight of the last 11 winners had at least seven runs over 3 miles or longer.
Similarly, eight had won at least once over that distance, with seven having recorded at least two victories over three miles or more.
Chase experience and rating
Grand National winners tend to have solid chasing experience. 10 of the last 11 winners had at least nine previous chase runs, and eight had won at least three chases.
A horse’s rating is another key factor, with nine of the last 11 winners rated between 146 and 160, reinforcing the notion that quality horses generally rise to the occasion.
Graded race wins & seasonal form
Class counts when it comes to the Grand National. Seven of the last 11 winners had secured at least one previous victory in a Grade 1-3 race, highlighting the importance of competing at a high level.
Season form also plays a role, with all 11 recent winners having at least three runs in the campaign leading up to Aintree.
Nine had no more than six runs that season, while nine had already notched up at least one victory earlier in the year.
