Betting against the spread (ATS) is one of the most popular ways to wager on the NFL. Unlike moneyline bets, which focus solely on who wins, ATS betting is based on the point spread set by sportsbooks. Successful bettors don’t just glance at team records; they dive deep into ATS performance trends. Here’s how to analyze an NFL team’s ATS performance before placing a bet.
Understand a Team’s Season-Long ATS Trends
A team’s win-loss record tells only part of the story. A strong ATS record means a team consistently outperforms expectations, while a weak one suggests they often fail to cover the spread. Reviewing season-long trends provides context, but raw percentages don’t tell the full story.
- Home vs. Away Performance: Some teams thrive at home but struggle on the road. Others might be road warriors that cover spreads away from their stadium. Identifying patterns helps assess upcoming matchups.
- Favorite vs. Underdog Trends: Not all teams perform equally in both roles. Some cover frequently as underdogs but fail as favorites, while others handle expectations well and cover large spreads.
- Conference and Divisional Matchups: Familiar opponents often lead to tighter, more predictable games. Studying ATS performance within divisions and conferences can uncover valuable trends.
Evaluate Recent Performance and Market Adjustments
Sportsbooks adjust lines based on recent performance. A team that has covered several spreads in a row may start getting inflated lines, making it more challenging to continue covering.
- Last Five Games: Betting markets react quickly, so the past five games can show if a team is overperforming or regressing to the mean. A team on a hot streak may be due for correction. For example, if the Buffalo Bills odds have been consistently moving in their favor after multiple dominant wins, sportsbooks may start setting spreads that are tougher to cover.
- Public Betting Influence: If a team is heavily backed by casual bettors, oddsmakers may adjust lines to create value on the other side. Tracking line movement can reveal whether a team is still offering value ATS.
Assess Key Situational Factors
Each game presents unique circumstances. Even a team with a strong ATS record may struggle in specific situations.
- Short Rest and Travel Fatigue: Teams playing on short rest or traveling cross-country often underperform against the spread. Thursday night games and international matchups can have a significant impact.
- Weather Conditions: Wind, rain, or extreme cold can influence scoring, affecting the likelihood of a team covering the spread. Teams built for specific conditions (such as run-heavy offenses in bad weather) may hold an advantage.
- Injury Reports: Key injuries—especially to quarterbacks, offensive linemen, or defensive playmakers—can shift a team’s ATS potential. A team missing multiple starters in critical positions may struggle to keep up.
Compare Performance Against Similar Opponents
Analyzing how a team has performed against opponents with similar styles provides valuable insight – however, true value can also be found in mismatched offenses and defenses.
- Offensive and Defensive Matchups: Some teams struggle against elite pass defenses, while others dominate weaker secondaries. A detailed NFL team analysis can help identify whether a particular team is likely to succeed or fail based on how they’ve performed against similar defensive schemes.
- Strength of Schedule: A team with a strong ATS record against weak opponents may not hold up against stronger competition. Conversely, a team with a poor ATS record could be undervalued if they’ve faced an elite schedule.
Track Betting Line Movement and Closing Line Value
Smart money often shapes the betting market, moving lines before kickoff. Monitoring these movements can offer insight into where value exists.
- Opening Line vs. Closing Line: If a team consistently beats the closing number, it suggests sharp bettors see value in their lines.
- Reverse Line Movement: When most public money is on one team but the line moves the other way, it often signals sharp action on the less popular side.
Take a Deep Dive
Analyzing an NFL team’s ATS performance goes beyond checking season records. Examining trends, recent form, situational factors, matchups, and line movements provides a clearer picture. The best bets come from identifying where public perception and reality diverge. Instead of following hype, focus on where the real value lies.
